| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1304.472 | 41,940,090 | US$53,639m |
| London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 126.05 | 4,052,588 | US$5,182m |
| London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 127.95 | 4,113,552 | US$5,260m |
| Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 14.21 | 475,497 | US$585m |
| Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 48.50 | 1,559,219 | US$1,976m |
| NASDAQ Dubai | Dubai Gold Securities | 0.155 | 4,969 | US$6m |
Monday, September 20, 2010
Summary of Gold assets held by ETFs as on 20/09/2010
FOCUS: Gold Sees Big Jump in Spec Long Positions-CFTC
The move to record highs in gold came with a rush of new speculative long positions, according to U.S. government data released late Friday.
Speculators also added to their long silver positions, but the aggressiveness in establishing new positions has slowed slightly.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report showed managed-money accounts piling back into those precious metals. In the disaggregated report for the week ended Sept. 14, managed-money accounts added a gross 9,667 contracts and now stand net-long 227,384 contracts, just shy of the June high of 227,831, the last time gold set an all-time nominal record.
Similarly, non-commercials in the legacy CFTC reports saw a hike in the long positions, with additional 10,692 gross long positions accrued. They are now net-long 271,988 contracts, the biggest position since June 29 when they were net long 273,023. Barclays Capital notes this is the sixth consecutive week speculative positions have risen in gold.
During this time, gold prices rose $14.20 an ounce, with the December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange taking out the previous all time high, with a settlement on Sept. 14 of $1,271.70. Since that date gold prices have continued to gain, settling at $1,277.50 on Sept. 17, which could mean another rise in speculative longs when the CFTC releases its data Friday afternoon.
The rise to new highs came as market participants reaffirmed their view of gold as a currency. The Bank of Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets to push down the yen and there were rampant rumors of another quantitative easing program by the U.S. Federal Reserve. “In an environment of sustained (dollar) weakness, OECD central bank liquidity and low/negative real interest rates coupled with a growing consensus for further US quantitative easing, we believe gold prices will remain well supported in the coming quarters,” said Morgan Stanley.
The bank said hedge-buy backs also supported gold. “While (dollar) weakness and speculation of further U.S. Fed (quantitative easing) sparked renewed investment buying, we think AngloGold Ashanti's capital raising to buy back its outstanding gold hedges was the key catalyst for the price surge,” it said.
During this time, the CFTC reported that swap dealers added a fair amount to short positions and the net short position for commercials was largely flat since they added to long and short positions almost evenly.
Managed-money accounts added to their record silver net-long in the disaggregated report, but the heft with which it bought in previous weeks has lessened. They are net-long 46,580 contracts, having added 1,978 gross longs and added 122 gross short. Swap dealers and commercials added to their net-shorts.
In the legacy report the non-commercials added 2,134, which allowed them to crack the 50,000 level for the first time since Oct. 20, 2009. They are net-long 50,501 contracts.
Silver has rallied sharply, supported by the strength in gold and outpacing the yellow metal in its rise. In the week ended Sept. 14, Comex December silver gained 42.3 cents an ounce and settled at $20.432. It went on to rally as high as $21, but pulled back to settle at $20.816.
In the platinum group metals, managed-money added to longs in both platinum and palladium. They are net-long 17,587 contracts of platinum and net-long 12,317 palladium. In the legacy report the non-commercials are 19,926 and 14,270 contracts, respectively.
Copper saw a modest drop in its net-long managed-money position in the disaggregated report, falling by about 450 contracts. They are net-long 23,518 contracts. Managed-money accounts added 217 gross long contracts and 670 gross net-shorts.
The legacy reports showed a rise in non-commercial net-long positions, arriving at 16,360.
For a detailed breakdown of the CFTC data, please visit: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
Speculators also added to their long silver positions, but the aggressiveness in establishing new positions has slowed slightly.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report showed managed-money accounts piling back into those precious metals. In the disaggregated report for the week ended Sept. 14, managed-money accounts added a gross 9,667 contracts and now stand net-long 227,384 contracts, just shy of the June high of 227,831, the last time gold set an all-time nominal record.
Similarly, non-commercials in the legacy CFTC reports saw a hike in the long positions, with additional 10,692 gross long positions accrued. They are now net-long 271,988 contracts, the biggest position since June 29 when they were net long 273,023. Barclays Capital notes this is the sixth consecutive week speculative positions have risen in gold.
During this time, gold prices rose $14.20 an ounce, with the December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange taking out the previous all time high, with a settlement on Sept. 14 of $1,271.70. Since that date gold prices have continued to gain, settling at $1,277.50 on Sept. 17, which could mean another rise in speculative longs when the CFTC releases its data Friday afternoon.
The rise to new highs came as market participants reaffirmed their view of gold as a currency. The Bank of Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets to push down the yen and there were rampant rumors of another quantitative easing program by the U.S. Federal Reserve. “In an environment of sustained (dollar) weakness, OECD central bank liquidity and low/negative real interest rates coupled with a growing consensus for further US quantitative easing, we believe gold prices will remain well supported in the coming quarters,” said Morgan Stanley.
The bank said hedge-buy backs also supported gold. “While (dollar) weakness and speculation of further U.S. Fed (quantitative easing) sparked renewed investment buying, we think AngloGold Ashanti's capital raising to buy back its outstanding gold hedges was the key catalyst for the price surge,” it said.
During this time, the CFTC reported that swap dealers added a fair amount to short positions and the net short position for commercials was largely flat since they added to long and short positions almost evenly.
Managed-money accounts added to their record silver net-long in the disaggregated report, but the heft with which it bought in previous weeks has lessened. They are net-long 46,580 contracts, having added 1,978 gross longs and added 122 gross short. Swap dealers and commercials added to their net-shorts.
In the legacy report the non-commercials added 2,134, which allowed them to crack the 50,000 level for the first time since Oct. 20, 2009. They are net-long 50,501 contracts.
Silver has rallied sharply, supported by the strength in gold and outpacing the yellow metal in its rise. In the week ended Sept. 14, Comex December silver gained 42.3 cents an ounce and settled at $20.432. It went on to rally as high as $21, but pulled back to settle at $20.816.
In the platinum group metals, managed-money added to longs in both platinum and palladium. They are net-long 17,587 contracts of platinum and net-long 12,317 palladium. In the legacy report the non-commercials are 19,926 and 14,270 contracts, respectively.
Copper saw a modest drop in its net-long managed-money position in the disaggregated report, falling by about 450 contracts. They are net-long 23,518 contracts. Managed-money accounts added 217 gross long contracts and 670 gross net-shorts.
The legacy reports showed a rise in non-commercial net-long positions, arriving at 16,360.
For a detailed breakdown of the CFTC data, please visit: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
No Quantitative Easing Expected Tuesday After FOMC; Inaction Could Mean Brief Gold Dip
Most financial-market participants do not expect the Federal Reserve to pull the trigger on quantitative easing as early as Tuesday. And that, some say, could mean a temporary retreat in gold prices, should some disappointed longs sell to exit positions.
But it won’t be enough to reverse the longer-term uptrend, observers said.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday, with a post-meeting statement expected at 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT). With the federal-funds rate near zero percent, policy-setters would have to use alternative tools such as quantitative easing —in which they buy Treasury or mortgage securities in a bid to push the long-term yields lower—to further jump-start the economy.
Some traders have bid gold higher lately on expectations that more quantitative easing may be coming from the Fed. However, the market majority does not expect it just yet.
“We believe there will be no move to sanction further quantitative easing at this meeting,” said Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst with Credit Agricole CIB. “We believe they will reiterate what they said most recently, and that is the incoming economic data will be watched closely. And if there is a marked deterioration, this will be one of the cues to perhaps move to sanction (quantitative easing) at the next meeting in November.”
Frank Lesh, broker and analyst with FuturePath Trading who monitors a range of markets, including gold and interest-rate futures, suggested the economic data lately has not been weak enough to trigger quantitative easing yet. He described Monday’s main U.S. report, from the National Association of Home Builders , as largely neutral. The home-builders confidence index remained at 13, matching the 17-month low in August and only one notch below expectations for a 14 reading.
“It is a possibility,” Lesh said of quantitative easing. “But it’s possible only if things start to look worse. They might say ‘we can if we need to,’ or something like that.”
Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock, pointed out that equities are higher so far this month, also reducing the potential for a quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at 10,709.80 late Monday morning, up 6.9% from the Aug. 31 close. “I would be very shocked if the Fed uses some of their bullets when they don’t need to,” Klopfenstein said.
A research note from Brown Brothers Harriman said newswire polls suggest the market majority does not expect quantitative easing just yet. BBH pointed out that in a speech several weeks ago at a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Chairman Ben Bernanke set the bar at “significant deterioration” of the economy to spur the Fed into more action.
“This has not been seen in recent data,” BBH said. “He also opined that the pre-conditions exist for higher growth in 2011…Officials are often loath to make a decision until circumstances force their hand.”
Bhar said as long as the annualized U.S. Consumer Price Index holds above 1%, Fed officials may be less likely to turn to quantitative easing since this means less fears about deflation. The August CPI report showed yearly inflation of 1.1%.
No Quantitative Easing Tuesday Could Mean Price Dip For Gold
Some of the buying that propelled gold to record highs last week and again on Monday was due to ideas in some camps that the Fed just might turn to quantitative easing as early as this week, Bhar said.
“But we don’t think they will say that. So gold will probably ease after the statement is released, because there will be some longs that will be disappointed,” Bhar said.
Gold conceivably could pull back by $10 to $15 should there be no quantitative easing, Bhar said. Still, he said, “there should be good support around $1,250 to $1,260. Physical demand should resume on dips. So there won’t be a major sell-off.”
Lesh said the lack of quantitative easing might prompt some profit-taking in the immediate aftermath of the Fed meeting. “But it won’t be enough of a setback to stop this gold,” he said. In fact, Lesh said, some market participants are likely to use any kind of price dip as a buying opportunity.
If the Fed should surprise the market majority and announce quantitative easing as early Tuesday, however, this would be bullish for gold, Bhar and Lesh said. “Obviously, we would see $1,300 come pretty quickly,” Bhar said.
Low Interest Rates Likely To Provide Further Long-Term Support
Regardless of what the Fed does with quantitative easing, gold is likely to remain in an uptrend as long as policy-setters leave interest rates essentially at zero, said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. This will encourage further buying on sheer momentum, he said.
“I’m bullish like crazy,” Kaplan said. “There is nowhere else money can go. Does gold deserve to be here? Absolutely not. Is it a bubble? Absolutely. Will it go higher? Absolutely.
“Gold is going up because people are buying it. And people are buying it because it’s going up. It’s momentum play.”
Whenever the Federal Reserve does hike rates, “it’s not going to be pretty,” Kaplan said. “But the Fed’s not going to raise rates for at least a year or two. Do we go to $1,500 first? Probably.”
Some of gold’s support has come from currency-related factors, as well as anticipation that the longer Fed officials maintain loose monetary supply, the greater the prospects for eventual inflation, Klopfenstein said. “And we’re seeing inflation in the grain markets right now,” he added, pointing to recent price increases in corn and soybeans.
“Whether you’re talking inflation or deflation, people feel gold as an asset they want to own,” he said, citing a desire for portfolio diversification.
But it won’t be enough to reverse the longer-term uptrend, observers said.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday, with a post-meeting statement expected at 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT). With the federal-funds rate near zero percent, policy-setters would have to use alternative tools such as quantitative easing —in which they buy Treasury or mortgage securities in a bid to push the long-term yields lower—to further jump-start the economy.
Some traders have bid gold higher lately on expectations that more quantitative easing may be coming from the Fed. However, the market majority does not expect it just yet.
“We believe there will be no move to sanction further quantitative easing at this meeting,” said Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst with Credit Agricole CIB. “We believe they will reiterate what they said most recently, and that is the incoming economic data will be watched closely. And if there is a marked deterioration, this will be one of the cues to perhaps move to sanction (quantitative easing) at the next meeting in November.”
Frank Lesh, broker and analyst with FuturePath Trading who monitors a range of markets, including gold and interest-rate futures, suggested the economic data lately has not been weak enough to trigger quantitative easing yet. He described Monday’s main U.S. report, from the National Association of Home Builders , as largely neutral. The home-builders confidence index remained at 13, matching the 17-month low in August and only one notch below expectations for a 14 reading.
“It is a possibility,” Lesh said of quantitative easing. “But it’s possible only if things start to look worse. They might say ‘we can if we need to,’ or something like that.”
Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock, pointed out that equities are higher so far this month, also reducing the potential for a quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at 10,709.80 late Monday morning, up 6.9% from the Aug. 31 close. “I would be very shocked if the Fed uses some of their bullets when they don’t need to,” Klopfenstein said.
A research note from Brown Brothers Harriman said newswire polls suggest the market majority does not expect quantitative easing just yet. BBH pointed out that in a speech several weeks ago at a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Chairman Ben Bernanke set the bar at “significant deterioration” of the economy to spur the Fed into more action.
“This has not been seen in recent data,” BBH said. “He also opined that the pre-conditions exist for higher growth in 2011…Officials are often loath to make a decision until circumstances force their hand.”
Bhar said as long as the annualized U.S. Consumer Price Index holds above 1%, Fed officials may be less likely to turn to quantitative easing since this means less fears about deflation. The August CPI report showed yearly inflation of 1.1%.
No Quantitative Easing Tuesday Could Mean Price Dip For Gold
Some of the buying that propelled gold to record highs last week and again on Monday was due to ideas in some camps that the Fed just might turn to quantitative easing as early as this week, Bhar said.
“But we don’t think they will say that. So gold will probably ease after the statement is released, because there will be some longs that will be disappointed,” Bhar said.
Gold conceivably could pull back by $10 to $15 should there be no quantitative easing, Bhar said. Still, he said, “there should be good support around $1,250 to $1,260. Physical demand should resume on dips. So there won’t be a major sell-off.”
Lesh said the lack of quantitative easing might prompt some profit-taking in the immediate aftermath of the Fed meeting. “But it won’t be enough of a setback to stop this gold,” he said. In fact, Lesh said, some market participants are likely to use any kind of price dip as a buying opportunity.
If the Fed should surprise the market majority and announce quantitative easing as early Tuesday, however, this would be bullish for gold, Bhar and Lesh said. “Obviously, we would see $1,300 come pretty quickly,” Bhar said.
Low Interest Rates Likely To Provide Further Long-Term Support
Regardless of what the Fed does with quantitative easing, gold is likely to remain in an uptrend as long as policy-setters leave interest rates essentially at zero, said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. This will encourage further buying on sheer momentum, he said.
“I’m bullish like crazy,” Kaplan said. “There is nowhere else money can go. Does gold deserve to be here? Absolutely not. Is it a bubble? Absolutely. Will it go higher? Absolutely.
“Gold is going up because people are buying it. And people are buying it because it’s going up. It’s momentum play.”
Whenever the Federal Reserve does hike rates, “it’s not going to be pretty,” Kaplan said. “But the Fed’s not going to raise rates for at least a year or two. Do we go to $1,500 first? Probably.”
Some of gold’s support has come from currency-related factors, as well as anticipation that the longer Fed officials maintain loose monetary supply, the greater the prospects for eventual inflation, Klopfenstein said. “And we’re seeing inflation in the grain markets right now,” he added, pointing to recent price increases in corn and soybeans.
“Whether you’re talking inflation or deflation, people feel gold as an asset they want to own,” he said, citing a desire for portfolio diversification.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Gold round up at 18.00 on 16/09/2010
Comex gold futures prices are trading solidly higher Thursday morning and have hit a new all-time record high on keen speculative and technically related buying interest. December Comex gold last traded up $9.00 an ounce at $1,277.70. Spot gold was last quoted up $8.10 at $1,277.00.
The U.S. dollar index is weaker Thursday, which is providing added support to the gold market. U.S. stock indexes are weaker early Thursday, while U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher, which is also mildly supportive for the gold market as it shows investor risk appetite is not as robust Thursday.
U.S. economic reports due out Thursday include weekly jobless claims, the producer price index, U.S. Treasury securities flow data and the Philadelphia Fed business survey. Traders are looking ahead to arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the week on Friday: the consumer price index. They reckon that report could provide the Federal Reserve with ammunition to further stimulate the U.S. economy with quantitative easing.
The London A.M. gold fixing was $1,271.25 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,267.00.
From an important technical perspective, December Comex gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Look for bigger daily price moves now that gold prices are in uncharted territory.
Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,285.00 in December gold, and then at $1,290.00. Support is seen at $1,270.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,266.10. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,264.00.
Comex silver futures are higher Thursday. December silver last traded up 14.4 cents at $20.715 an ounce. Prices overnight scored another fresh 26-month high. Silver bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. First resistance is seen at $20.80 and then at $20.90. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $20.475 and then at $20.34. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $20.38.
The U.S. dollar index is weaker Thursday, which is providing added support to the gold market. U.S. stock indexes are weaker early Thursday, while U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher, which is also mildly supportive for the gold market as it shows investor risk appetite is not as robust Thursday.
U.S. economic reports due out Thursday include weekly jobless claims, the producer price index, U.S. Treasury securities flow data and the Philadelphia Fed business survey. Traders are looking ahead to arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the week on Friday: the consumer price index. They reckon that report could provide the Federal Reserve with ammunition to further stimulate the U.S. economy with quantitative easing.
The London A.M. gold fixing was $1,271.25 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,267.00.
From an important technical perspective, December Comex gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Look for bigger daily price moves now that gold prices are in uncharted territory.
Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,285.00 in December gold, and then at $1,290.00. Support is seen at $1,270.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,266.10. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,264.00.
Comex silver futures are higher Thursday. December silver last traded up 14.4 cents at $20.715 an ounce. Prices overnight scored another fresh 26-month high. Silver bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. First resistance is seen at $20.80 and then at $20.90. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $20.475 and then at $20.34. Today's near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $20.38.
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